Surfing the Internet I found an extremely interesting post about famously wrong predictions. The article made me think about how easily people give opinions of matters they don’t fully understand. Then I started making some research on my own to try to find other similarly wrong predictions and I got to this quote by our old friend Bill Gates:
“… there is this thing called the GPL, which we disagree with … nobody can ever improve the software.” Bill Gates, 2008
I found it very worrying that at this time, Mr Gates’ ignorance is still so huge, and even more worrying when I thought about how easily people believe so called experts, like him, with no hesitation. So I decided to gather together some more wrong predictions and add them to the previous list in a futile attempt to help increasing critical thinking. I found quite a lot of them in wikiquotes and a comprehensive list about the 1929 crack, very appropriate for the current crisis time. I hope you enjoy the reading as much as I enjoyed the research
Technology
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
“But what … is it good for?” Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
“So we went to Atari and said, ‘Hey, we’ve got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we’ll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we’ll come work for you.’ And they said, ‘No.’ So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, ‘Hey, we don’t need you. You haven’t got through college yet.’” Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and HP interested in his and Steve Wozniak’s personal computer.
“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” Bill Gates, 1981
“I believe OS/2 is destined to be the most important operating system, and possibly program, of all time.” Bill Gates, 1987
“Spam will be a thing of the past in two years’ time.” Bill Gates, 2004
“When we have the information highway, I’ll put [information about himself] out there. Everybody who wants to pay, I don’t know, one cent, can see what movies I’m watching and what books I’m reading and certain other information. If I’m still interesting, I’ll rack up dollars as people access that part of the highway.” Bill Gates, 1994
Science
“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
“Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.” 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard’s revolutionary rocket work.
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.
“The energy produced by breaking down the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformations of these atoms is talking moonshine.” Lord Ernest Rutherford
“It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes [nuclear generated] electrical energy too cheap to meter.” Lewis Strauss, Chairman, US Atomic Energy Commission, 1954.
“You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of your muscles? It can’t be done. It’s just a fact of life. You just have to accept inconsistent muscle development as an unalterable condition of weight training.” Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the “unsolvable” problem by inventing Nautilus.
“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction”. Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872
“The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon”. Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873.
Business
“The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C,’ the idea must be feasible.” A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith’s paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)
“A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make.” Response to Debbi Fields‘ idea of starting Mrs. Fields’ Cookies.
“If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can’t do this.” Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M “Post-It” Notepads.
“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You’re crazy.” Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.
“$100 million dollars is way too much to pay for Microsoft.” IBM, 1982
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” Western Union internal memo, 1876.
“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?” David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
Arts
“I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face not Gary Cooper.” Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in “Gone With The Wind.”
“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
“Who the h_ll wants to hear actors talk?” H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
Warfare
“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.” Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.
“I believe there is sincerity and good will on both sides… Now that we have got past [the question of Czechoslovakia] I feel that it may be possible to make further progress along the road to sanity.” Prime Minister Chamberlain, defending his actions