Category: Innovation

Untangle tangling with eBox

A few days ago Isaac posted about Untangle’s new marketing strategy, which is to aim for the words ‘ebox’ and ‘ebox-platform’ with Google ads (nothing new so far) and expressly mention eBox in the ad’s headline (Wow! That’s new!). Here is a sample:

Well, tactically there is nothing wrong with it, though in my opinion it is a major strategical error for several reasons:

  1. eBox and Untangle are not direct competitors. Untangle is a network access and security software, carefully packaged to be easy to deploy and targeting small organizations. On the other hand, eBox covers many more features such as user, resources, communication and infrastructure management. It is not only carefully packaged but it also implements a very tight integration of different services, automating most of the tasks and avoiding the possibility of misconfiguring the network. It has a development framework and a web services interface to easily extend its functionality and connect with other applications. Finally, current eBox users range from home offices (eBox in a single installation) to large organizations with several thousands of users (eBox installed in several machines optimized for different tasks). In short, Untangle is a niche product, eBox is a multi-niche technology.
  2. Efforts should be aimed to compete with close source solutions, already focused in rich segments of the market. There is a load of competitors with a similar market target than Untangle, such as SonicWall, Fortinet, Watchguard or Juniper, and being their open source alternative could be easy to position and a good long-term move.
  3. Untangle is a California-based company with almost 20 M$ funds in series A and B. eBox is a self-funded startup in Spain. With such ads Untangle is positioning itself at a similar level than eBox from a market point of view. Technically there is no doubt that eBox is superior in most aspects, but Untangle has way more funds to develop a more established market position than eBox. However, they choose to show to the market that we are at a similar level. I have nothing against it but I do not think it is very clever to do so. In fact, I feel flattered and they have given us a good story to tell investors, like “Hey! Without any external funds we made a 20 M$ backed, California-based company feel threatened. Don’t you think we might be a good investment opportunity?”. Thanks, dudes! :-)

Famously Wrong Predictions

1929Surfing the Internet I found an extremely interesting post about famously wrong predictions. The article made me think about how easily people give opinions of matters they don’t fully understand. Then I started making some research on my own to try to find other similarly wrong predictions and I got to this quote by our old friend Bill Gates:

“… there is this thing called the GPL, which we disagree with … nobody can ever improve the software.” Bill Gates, 2008

I found it very worrying that at this time, Mr Gates’ ignorance is still so huge, and even more worrying when I thought about how easily people believe so called experts, like him, with no hesitation. So I decided to gather together some more wrong predictions and add them to the previous list in a futile attempt to help increasing critical thinking. I found quite a lot of them in wikiquotes and a comprehensive list about the 1929 crack, very appropriate for the current crisis time. I hope you enjoy the reading as much as I enjoyed the research :-)

Technology

“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

“I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957

“But what … is it good for?” Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

“So we went to Atari and said, ‘Hey, we’ve got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we’ll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we’ll come work for you.’ And they said, ‘No.’ So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, ‘Hey, we don’t need you. You haven’t got through college yet.’” Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and HP interested in his and Steve Wozniak’s personal computer.

“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” Bill Gates, 1981

“I believe OS/2 is destined to be the most important operating system, and possibly program, of all time.” Bill Gates, 1987

“Spam will be a thing of the past in two years’ time.” Bill Gates, 2004

“When we have the information highway, I’ll put [information about himself] out there. Everybody who wants to pay, I don’t know, one cent, can see what movies I’m watching and what books I’m reading and certain other information. If I’m still interesting, I’ll rack up dollars as people access that part of the highway.” Bill Gates, 1994

Science

“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

“Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.” 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard’s revolutionary rocket work.

“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.

“The energy produced by breaking down the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformations of these atoms is talking moonshine.” Lord Ernest Rutherford

“It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes [nuclear generated] electrical energy too cheap to meter.” Lewis Strauss, Chairman, US Atomic Energy Commission, 1954.

“You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of your muscles? It can’t be done. It’s just a fact of life. You just have to accept inconsistent muscle development as an unalterable condition of weight training.” Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the “unsolvable” problem by inventing Nautilus.

“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction”. Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872

“The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon”. Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873.

Business

“The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C,’ the idea must be feasible.” A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith’s paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)

“A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make.” Response to Debbi Fields‘ idea of starting Mrs. Fields’ Cookies.

“If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can’t do this.” Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M “Post-It” Notepads.

“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You’re crazy.” Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

“$100 million dollars is way too much to pay for Microsoft.” IBM, 1982

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” Western Union internal memo, 1876.

“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?” David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

Arts

“I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face not Gary Cooper.” Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in “Gone With The Wind.”

“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

“Who the h_ll wants to hear actors talk?” H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

Warfare

“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.” Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.

“I believe there is sincerity and good will on both sides… Now that we have got past [the question of Czechoslovakia] I feel that it may be possible to make further progress along the road to sanity.” Prime Minister Chamberlain, defending his actions

Iron Sky teaser trailer released

Last month Energia Productions released the teaser trailer of Iron Sky, their new movie and it looks really promising. Energia Productions is a Finnish production company founded by the creators of Star Wreck, the first full-length “free” movie, released under a Creative Commons license and developed by a group of Finnish students during seven years in the same way as most open source projects do. They were supported by a worldwide community of fans helped making it the most popular Finnish film of all time, with around 4 million viewers.
After their huge success of Star Wreck, which was shown on Finnish national television YLE TV2, on the Belgian national television channel Canvas, and Italian TV-channel Jimmy, they are back with their new project, Iron Sky. This time they have funds backing their project and the contribution of the award-winning Finnish author Johanna Sinisalo. And the plot could not be better:

As World War II comes to an end in 1945, Hans Kammler and other German scientists make a breakthrough in anti-gravity research. Nazi spaceships are sent to the dark side of the Moon to found the military base Schwarze Sonne (Black Sun). Their plan is to build a powerful fleet and return to conquer Earth. The film is set in the year 2018 when their descendants finally return.

But apart from their new movie the most exciting outcome is that, if Energia Productions succeeds in developing a sustainable and profitable organization based on their free model, they can revolutionize the whole film industry and show a business model that can be replicated by other studios elsewhere.

The MySQL Model

DolphinI have always considered MySQL as the best model for open source companies. Their approach to the market, the execution of different business models, their relation with the community or the way their work internally as a virtual organization have shown an innovative and successful example of how an IT company in the 21st century can be managed.

The agreement with Sun, announced last January, was the crowning point of all the efforts put in the company since the beginning, proving the success of their innovative model. Since then I have been trying to put some order in my ideas about their model and summarize them in a few blocks that could serve as a quick guide to emulate their success. I discussed my ideas with Henrik Ingo, a friend of mine who joined MySQL recently, and he has helped greatly bringing his experience and insights on the matter. Here are the 10 points that resulted from our discussion about the MySQL model:

1) Market focus

Ignacio: Most open source startups face a similar dilemma when going to market. Should they become the open source, cheap alternative to the expensive, overfunctional and well-established competitors? Or should they do things differently and focus on unattended needs or new users? The first option is usually the easiest way because the market and conditions are already defined. MySQL chose the second option, riskier but more exciting and fun. Instead of competing directly with IBM, Oracle, and Microsoft in the
high end database market, it cleverly focused on the new flourishing markets of the Internet applications. Mårten is insisting on this point at every chance he gets with his motto “The Best Online Database”. It was a risky bet then but now MySQL is definitely the Web 2.0 database, and from their huge user base there have arisen some large customers, such as Google, Youtube or Yahoo!, with massive deployments and great success cases.

Henrik: Mårten always says that MySQL shouldn’t be a technology driven and not even a customer driven company, but market driven. It took me a long time to understand what that means – especially that being too focused on your current customers could potentially be a bad thing too. By focusing on a new and rapidly growing market, you don’t have to compete against any incumbents, and better yet, by just keeping your market share you are growing every year. Most importantly, MySQL has in fact been part of defining the Web and Web2.0 markets – not just playing the game by its rules but creating the rules!

2) Revenue model

Ignacio: MySQL is definitely one of the pioneers in the difficult task of making money with software that is free. During its 13-year history, the company has followed virtually all the known revenue models in the open source world. From a dual license for OEMs, to support, consulting and training services or the more recent subscription model, MySQL is continuously finding the optimal combination with the familiar and not-so-familiar models.

Henrik: Being different is hard enough (most people just lack the imagination required) but being different and still profitable, this is one of the hardest things in this list I think. From the outside most people don’t realise how much experimentation and development is put into the business model. It seems like from the start MySQL has tried a new business model each year.

For instance, MySQL wasn’t even GPL’d before 2001 (I think). Before that Monty and David used a system where Linux users got it for free but Windows users should pay. More like shareware than pure Open Source I guess? When changing to GPL the revenues dropped to a fifth of what they were previously (as many Windows users stopped paying). Yet, soon thereafter revenues grew faster than ever before – it turned out to be the right thing to do.

Kaj always likes to say that MySQL is like building an airplane and flying it at the same time.

3) Marketing and sales model

Ignacio: I must admit I am not an expert in this field but I think it is not too hard to realize that MySQL’s sales model differs substantially from other more traditional IT companies. The thing that marvels me the most is the intensive use of the Internet to find leads, to strengthen the word-to-mouth effect of the community, to tightly coordinate with partners or to increase awareness of MySQL’s capabilities, for example with their free on-line seminars. Well, this should be natural for any open source company, but it is not easy to align the views of the marketing and sales team with a virtual, collaborative model.

Some time ago, somewhere, I read that MySQL spends only 10% of its annual budget in marketing, whereas Microsoft spends 50% (I might be wrong in the exact amounts, so don’t use this as a reference). On the other hand, MySQL’s revenue has been doubling every year, whereas MS’s increase has been around 10%. I know they are not comparable companies, and that it is harder to double your size when you are a $50 Bn company than when your revenue is 1,000 times lower. But still, it is undoubtedly clear that MySQL’s marketing expenditure is far more effective than MS’s.

4) Distribution and integration with other technologies

Henrik: As long as I can remember, MySQL always was there – and there are many angles here.

Basically in the Open Source and/or Linux world the battle was between 2 players, MySQL and PostgreSQL. However, MySQL (until some years ago) was the only alternative that was also available for Windows. And when 90% of Web servers were running Linux but 90% of web developers used Windows at home, MySQL was their favorite choice. And remember, they used modems, so most of the time the developer was disconnected from the server, so running MySQL, PHP and Apache also on Windows was a must to get things done. Most people I talk to don’t agree with this, but I think the availability on Windows may have been the decisive factor in MySQL becoming the nr 1 Open Source and Web database.

Then MySQL was also the choice of most web hotels. In fact, in 2001 or so I was a Postgres fan and did all DB development on Postgres. But then I had to make some projects where the database was going to be hosted by a web hotel, and it turned out all of them just offered MySQL and very few had Postgres. So I had to start using MySQL, and I was quite ok with that, but in the beginning it really was a choice that was done for me.

And then finally of course MySQL has been the default choice in so many CMS and other web applications, tutorials and so on, beginning with Perl and immediately after with PHP.

Ignacio: I totally agree. The integration with Windows helped decisively to enter the new market of web developers. Actually, the Windows version of MySQL still accounts for over 40 percent of the downloads, almost half of the total.

On the other hand, a lot of MySQL installations on Linux are not downloaded from the web site but come embedded in a distribution. In my opinion, the decision of releasing the code under the GPL helped greatly in getting integrated in every Linux distribution, fostering its adoption by the open source community and ultimately leading to the creation of the LAMP stack. The integration with Linux, Apache and PHP was the right choice, both from the technical and from the market point of view. Being in the middle of the LAMP stack (great name, by the way) gave instant and global visibility and it positioned MySQL immediately in the desired segment of the market.

5) Internal organization

Ignacio: The thing I admire the most in the MySQL model is that the whole organization works virtually. The way it is managed in every aspect with 70% of its employees working from home in around 30 different countries is just amazing. But I do think it is the way to go nowadays and MySQL is showing the path.

Six months ago I shared a dining table with Monty (one of MySQL’s founders) in a conference in Finland and he was eager to explain in detail the company’s internal organization as a virtual entity. The idea behind it is to be able to hire the best people in the world wherever they live. As Monty said, if someone is good, it’s worth doing anything to hire him/her, even if it means to increase complexity in the administration or to found a sister company in a new country just for that employee.

Many people think that the main idea behind a virtual company is to reduce structural costs. In fact I thought so before meeting Monty. But the truth, as he explained, is that costs stay in the same level that in a traditional organization, because people need to meet in person twice or thrice every year, and traveling becomes expensive. But you definitely get an increase in motivation and productivity, which, from the facts that I understood, can be estimated in at least a 15% increase.

Henrik: There is a thrilling story in the MySQL history book employees received this year, which is about MySQL’s first Non-Scandinavian employee, Sinisa from Belgrad, Serbia. Sinisa was on-call for support and was giving phone support to one of MySQL’s customers, a US defense contractor. The thrilling part of the story is, at the same time, US Navy Jets were dropping bombs into Belgrade!

But this story highlights the international and global nature of MySQL’s organisation at a very early stage already. This is of course not uncommon to any other Open Source project either.

6) HR policy

Henrik: One thing that struck me when starting to work for MySQL was he high level of seniority throughout all employees. When Monty says that the point of a virtual company is to hire the best people in the world – yes, they mean it. You could already see this when looking at the open job positions, Senior Engineer this, Architect that. As a rule, when people join MySQL they already have several years of experience, often from some other database company like Oracle or Sybase.

Recruiting is hard – I know that myself from my previous jobs. How do you know which are good? The obvious way obviously is that engineers are mostly hired from the Open Source community and often specifically the MySQL community itself, so they already have shown their talent publicly when they are hired. But there are many positions where this isn’t possible. Even in such cases it seems to me that a good way to get hired with MySQL has been to somehow be known already: Be related to someone, be a friend of someone, or even just being Scandinavian might help, anything. I also know of several cases where someone joining MySQL has previously been a customer.

Being a virtual company, it is my understanding that MySQL never hired people without meeting them though. This is important to understand, because it typically means the cost of a job interview will be hundreds of Euros due to flight tickets.

MySQL also seems to rely on the technique I’ve myself seen to work well, which is to have as many people as possible interview a candidate. On the other hand I don’t think there were any tests or such, at least for me there weren’t. Again, candidates were selected on the basis of already being known to be as good as they claim to be.

For HR policies I think MySQL was best known for its Scandinavian 5 week vacation applied worldwide. Of course, being a Scandinavian myself, there wasn’t anything special in it for me, but I think it again highlights an aspect of being a virtual company. While the employment legislation realities may be different across countries, MySQL tried to treat all nationalities equally. Indeed, in some countries people were employed but in some countries the employees were actually contractors. But internally you couldn’t tell which were which, contractors were never treated as “externals” or anything.

7) Partners ecosystem

Ignacio: We have been MySQL training partner for more than two years now. What we have learned from that experience is that the kind of relation you can get with MySQL as a partner is almost as feeling an integral part of the company itself. From the direct contact, close collaboration and share of revenue it is easy to realize that MySQL seeks a long-term relation with its partners, and it is ready to sacrifice some short-term profits in order to drive opportunities for its partners.

Moreover, the whole MySQL’s Conference & Expo is clearly an event especially organized to increase visibility for partners. It is really an ecosystem where you get the opportunity to grow and develop as a part of a bigger entity.

Henrik: Even for big companies having a good partner network is essential, nobody can do everything by themselves in this world. For a small company it is even more true, of course. One way to think of this is, when do you remember first thinking of MySQL as a significant player in the database world? I think for me it was 2000-2001. For some “significant” may have been later. Yet the company behind MySQL was ~10 persons in 2000 and ~100 in 2003. (And of course, by the more conservative standards, MySQL was too small to be significant even right until the Sun acquisition.) In fact what inspires me about MySQL is the fact it has been able to act as a global player with such a small team, providing consulting and training to customers around the world. This is not only thanks to the partners, but also a testament how Internet and globalisation in general has changed the world.

8) Development model

Ignacio: There are many ways to organize a community around an open source project, but they all require a strong leadership. MySQL chose to keep the development in-house, which is the natural decision in a company basing its business entirely on the product. It has the main advantages of keeping a standard coding style and avoiding copyright issues. On the other hand, by ensuring the openness of the code it gets quickly the main benefits of an open source project, namely bug reports, documentation and visibility. Moreover, a bunch of extra developments, such as connectors, UIs or patches, where coded by members of the community, which apart from completing the product became a good source for recruiting.

Henrik: This is an interesting topic right now, because it is also relevant to many other Sun projects. The fact is, MySQL is developed in-house to a higher degree, and we may in fact be missing out on something. Of course, the fact that the product is sold through a dual licensing model may deter some Community contributors, but in my understanding this is not a significant problem – most Open Source
contributors are quite ok with others making money out of your contributions anyway. In fact, there are patches out there at this very moment that we are not able to absorb for various reasons – so the problem is the exact opposite as you’d assume. The reasons are plentifold, legal (contributor agreement could be better), non-modular codebase and the fact that a lot of development talk tends to gravitate to company internal mailing lists.

I think a good benchmark for MySQL should be the Linux Kernel, of which there is a good whitepaper by the Linux Foundation. What are we missing out on? 14% of contributions from non-paid hobbyists is a good start. We should have at least that amount of community contributions too!

All this being said, the commercial driven development has been good for MySQL, and the product has benefited significantly from the growth of the business enabling the company to hire more great coders. In fact, the prime reason why the MySQL community is so small is that MySQL constantly kept hiring all community members – I’m sure we all agree this is a GOOD THING.

9) Relation with community

Ignacio: In spite of being a company, which sometimes raises mistrust in some community movements, MySQL has so far managed to keep a very good relation with the open source community. Even when it launched the Enterprise version, a closed fork of the database, it managed to explain well its decision and avoided a lot of critics. In my opinion, the reason it managed so well was because it kept a the same functionality available for both versions. There are other aspects that help explaining its good relation, such as the presence in the blogger ecosystem, the sponsoring of some contributors to present their developments at the MySQL Conference or the fluent communication between core developers and community. However, there is now a big challenge, as MySQL announced plans to publish some very demanded functionality only for paying customers. This is raising concerns in the community, even outrage, and can damage seriously their relation. Anyway, I am confident MySQL will listen to its users and get to a compromise solution good enough for everybody.

Henrik: For me personally this is an interesting part of being in Open Source business, the feedback and close ties with your users is so much stronger than it was in Pre-Internet times. So in effect a good manager in an Open Source company has to have some understanding and active practition even in issues like ethics and philosophy, and let’s be honest, also populism :-) The issues are not black and white or rational, but you do need to know how to live by them. Note by the way the strong language used by these otherwise quiet nerds! It’s like “cheating on your wife”: bad; “Doing closed source code”: unethical!

10) Time frame

Ignacio: Something many new entrepreneurs forget when trying to emulate the MySQL model is that its $1Bn value was not built in a day, but it took 13 years of hard work and step-by-step evolution. Of course there are examples of huge valuations in really young companies (Youtube, Facebook, Xensource, …), but for each success case there are thousands of failures. The way to really follow MySQL’s model, is about adding real value today, not about thinking of how to sell the company tomorrow.

Henrik: Even with MySQL there was an option to “get rich quick”. Monty, David and Allan were offered around 50M$ to sell the company during the dotcom bubble. While, according to Monty, it was hard to say no thanks to such amounts of money, they chose to continue looking for an investor that let them stay in control as majority owners. Now after the Sun deal, these guys are even richer than 50M$, but guess what – they intend to stay with their original mission: providing superior database technology available and affordable to all, now with an added boost from one of the biggest IT companies in the world.

You can find this same 10 points in Henrik’s blog.

Update by Henrik: We are getting some feedback regarding the factual correctness of my last point here, so I just want to point out that while these “during the bubble…” stories are always entertaining to hear, the real point is not how much money possibly was offered for MySQL, but rather that the founders were reluctant to sell away majority too early. One reason even being that it is hard being a revolutionary if you’re not even in control of your own business. (This point came up during an interview I did with Monty at the May 2008 Open Tuesday event in Helsinki last week, which I promise to blog about real soon now, honest…) The irony of course is that if “being a revolutionary” was the prime motivator, it is funny that in the end the founders ended up with even more money than a quick sell would have given them. This is a correlation I strongly believe in by the way (Linus Torvalds…).

Web 2.0 is dead

A few weeks ago I participated as a speaker in a seminar at the University of San Jorge, together with Antonio, CEO of Cierzo Development, a startup in the region specialized in Web 2.0 technologies. We both had the opportunity to share our points of view on our tech fields with a group of CIO’s and other IT professionals, which was very interesting and rewarding.

I learned some new ideas from Antonio’s presentation and I hope he doesn’t mind me sharing with the rest of the world ;-) Antonio explained that there are more than 12,500 web sites with the words “Web 2.0 is dead” (12,501 by now) of people forecasting the burst of the Web 2.0 bubble. And it seems clear there is a bubble. Suffice it to compare Gartner’s technology adoption curve with Nasdaq’s index evolution during the dot.com bubble and the Google Trends results with the most popular Web 2.0 applications such as Facebook, Youtube, Lastfm (at their peak of inflated expectations) or Second Life (already at the trough of disillusionment). On the other hand, it is completely counterintuitive that Facebook, a social web site launched 4 years ago, is valued at a higher price than Ford, the car manufacturer.

And last week there came some news that seem to agree with Antonio’s predictions: Google admitted that monetizing social web sites is harder than expected, which, if confirmed with raw data, might hurt a lot the Web 2.0 industry and sink its revenue expectations:

“Social networks today, much like e-mail, are utility-like and often used as a communications platform. These types of channels have never monetized well with advertising.”

Here comes another bubble!

Chris Anderson talking about “Free” (as in free beer)

During these past Xmas holidays I caught up with some tasks that were waiting on my growing TODO list. One of them was watching Chris Anderson speech at the Nokia World 2007 in Amsterdam last month (slides here), where he presented some of the ideas included in his new book, entitled ‘Free’, following up his past book, The Long Tail.
In his speech, Anderson explained what disruptions happen in the economy when some basic goods become free or almost free (such as electricity, IT infrastructure or access to information) and what new markets and business models generate from there. It is particularly interesting the list of business models arising from a market of free goods and services (where open source is definitely included in most of them), such as:

  • Cross-subsidy: give away the razors, sell the razor blades; or give away music and sell concert tours; or give away the bits and sell the services; or give away flight tickets and sell other tourist services (food, hotel rooms, car rentals, …); or give away a computer game for free and sell virtual land, characters or items in the game, …
  • Ad-Supported: magazines, newspapers, blogs, …
  • Freemium: 99% use the free version, but a few pay extra for a premium version; Skype is in this category and so many other dual-license based open source products
  • Gift economy: give people an opportunity and a platform to contribute, like Wikipedia or most of community based projects

Another idea that I also found interesting was that every abundance creates new scarcity. Although old scarcities such as time and money are still scarce, there are new ones on the table: attention and reputation. There is only so much attention and reputation available in the world. On an Internet economy, attention can be measured by web traffic and reputation by incoming links.

As you can imagine, a 45-minute presentation is not enough to discuss all these new ideas in depth, but the thing I liked the most is that they show a clear pattern replicating among businesses in very different industries and markets, but which make Internet a fundamental part of their activities. Now I have a bunch of good examples that will help me explain the basics of open source business by explaining other well-known cases such as Ryanair, Second Life or the Artist Formerly Known as Prince.

Linux progressing through sheer luck

Via Meneame I stumbled upon a great comment from Linus Torvalds about whether Linux is progressing through sheer luck. I found it a great explanation of why open source development model works, yet simple enough to be understood by anyone:

Hey, that’s not a bug, that’s a FEATURE!
You know what the most complex piece of engineering known to man in the whole solar system is?
Guess what – it’s not Linux, it’s not Solaris, and it’s not your car.
It’s you. And me.
And think about how you and me actually came about – not through any complex design.
Right. “sheer luck”.
Well, sheer luck, AND:
- free availability and _crosspollination_ through sharing of “source code”, although biologists call it DNA.
- a rather unforgiving user environment, that happily replaces bad versions of us with better working versions and thus culls the herd (biologists often call this “survival of the fittest”)
- massive undirected parallel development (“trial and error”)
I’m deadly serious: we humans have _never_ been able to replicate something more complicated than what we ourselves are, yet natural selection did it without even thinking.
Don’t underestimate the power of survival of the fittest.
And don’t EVER make the mistake that you can design something better than what you get from ruthless massively parallel trial-and-error with a feedback cycle. That’s giving your intelligence _much_ too much credit.

eBox: Open Source Network Admin From The Desert

Last week I got interviewed by alarm:clock euro, a blog covering the business of technology startups that got interested in learning more about us and eBox. The interview is long but interesting, as it summarizes our genesis and evolution. Even I learned some things from us! ;-) I particularly liked the catch phrase at the end of their introduction:

“[...] Those points and the fact that it’s the only startup we know that is based in Europe’s largest desert sealed it for us.”

Being coded in Perl and developed in the middle of the desert maybe we should consider adopting a camel as eBox pet ;-)

Open Innovation II

This afternoon we will have the chance to attend the second edition of Open Innovation, an event promoted by the city council of Zaragoza and organized mainly by the Foundation Zaragoza Ciudad del Conocimiento. This is a forum to share experiences and create contacts among entrepreneurs and professionals involved in open source businesses. This time, it is even more exciting than the last time: Mikko is back in town to share his insights with us but we will also have the chance to listen to Stephen’s ideas. Besides, we will have two Spanish companies who are doing great things with open source: a large corporation called Telefonica I+D and a small but extremely interesting company called Bitrock. There is a third company called Safe Creative, but I don’t know much about them, so I don’t have any opinion yet.

After the presentations there will be time for beers and discussions. See you there!
Disclamer: Warp is one of the organizers of the event. Stephen and Mikko are both members of eBox board of directors.

The secret of success

Via El Norte del Sur I got to some very insightful quotes posted in Snakes and Ladders:

“Sir, What is the secret of your success?”

“Two words”

“And, Sir, what are they?”

“Right decisions.”

“And how do you make right decisions?”

“One word.”

“And, What is that?”

“Experience.”

“And how do you get Experience?”

“Two words”

“And, Sir, what are they?”

“Wrong decisions.”

Innovation from Aragon

Simo, by far the largest IT fair in Spain, opened yesterday for a week of presentations and company exhibitions in Madrid. During the last years it has become more like a flesh market, with tanga showgirls and sales people spreading their pitch, instead of real entrepreneurs and tech-savvy geeks announcing new ventures. But anyway, it still remains as the largest event in the IT market in this country and an important reference in our industry.

Last year they started a new, refreshing initiative: the Vivero (SME incubator) area. It consists on an evaluation of some of the newest and most innovative companies in Spain, where a relatively small number is selected to present their projects in a stand during the whole SIMO week. This year, 58 companies were selected to participate in the Vivero area. I am proud to announce that Warp Networks has been selected among these innovative breed, to present ourselves and our flag project, eBox Platform.

But there is something that deserves even more attention. Aragon, our region, has a disproportionate amount of companies in the area. Up from a total of 58 companies, 8 are from Aragon (Warp Networks, Omepet, Libelium, Cierzo Development, LSLuz, Icom-Sip, Zitralia and Alfa Technologies), just behind Catalonia with 12 and Madrid region with 16. The figures are much more meaningful when you consider them relative to their population:

  • Madrid, with 13.42 % of the country population, has 27.58 % of the companies in the Vivero area (2.6 companies per million inhabitants)
  • Catalonia, with 15.96 % of the country population, has 20.57 % of the companies in the Vivero area (1.7 companies per million inhabitants)
  • Aragon, with 2.85 % of the country population, has 14.80 % of the companies in the Vivero area (6.3 companies per million inhabitants)

I could feel that there was something in the air in Zaragoza and Aragon, a new generation of innovative entrepreneurs with disruptive ideas and great ambition, but I must admit that the figures are far more overwhelming than what I thought. This can only be good :-)

The Wapit story

It is funny how much time we waste in short breaks and how many more things we could do by using them. Last week I downloaded a book into my Nokia 770 and read it during some short slices of time during my daily life (bus transfers, lonely meals, toilet times, …) and it might end up being one of the best lessons I can ever learn at this stage of my professional life.

The book (The Wapit Story) is written by Mato Valtonen, ex-Leningrad Cowboy and founder of Wapit, a startup focused on WAP services that rode the Wireless and dotcom craze in the end of 90’s beginning of 2000’s. It describes with a funny style, how everything started, from the first idea in the garage, the first big contracts, the expansion to a real office, the non-stop hiring process, the investors, the “everything goes” spirit, the crazy ideas and crazy spendings, the media covers, the huge valuations, the purchase offers, the endless dreams, … and the the burst of the bubble, the cannibal costs, the devaluations, the anguish for the never-signed second round of investment, the last-minute blown-up deals, the compromise of the whole staff with the company, the last bullets shot and down to bankruptcy (yes, I am a spoiler! But blame the author as he states it in the beginning). The book really teaches good lessons on how to balance risks, keep your head cool no matter how euphoric you might feel and how painful investors can become during the times of crisis. Really useful for new generations of entrepreneurs who where too young to see the dotcom burst from inside.

Here is a good sample of the book, where Mato describes roughly how the world was seeing Finland back then:

Americans in particular were totally caught with their pants down in the wireless technology race. Even text messages were totally unknown to them. Our Northern head start was roughly a light year. Americans marveled at our progress. They openly and completely admitted defeat in their articles. Accounts of wife-carrying, boot-throwing, and other swamp-running competitions increased interest in Finland. An utterly mad people that danced the tango and loved the sauna, and only grunted before the mobile phone was invented. But they were unquestionably the world